Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.333575 0.377908 0.426009 0.482092 0.545708 0.615657 0.698443
2025-10-12 0.267970 0.326639 0.395123 0.481029 0.586021 0.710316 0.868872
2025-10-19 0.222729 0.289933 0.373704 0.485950 0.632697 0.818438 1.072071
2025-10-26 0.190881 0.263992 0.360816 0.498713 0.690617 0.949083 1.325139
2025-11-02 0.156328 0.228596 0.329794 0.482274 0.707097 1.027842 1.522855
2025-11-09 0.127232 0.195892 0.297132 0.457862 0.707930 1.084337 1.698128
2025-11-16 0.107816 0.174191 0.276904 0.448165 0.728400 1.172029 1.933968
2025-11-23 0.091825 0.155178 0.257736 0.436764 0.743892 1.253655 2.172995
2025-11-30 0.082657 0.145766 0.252392 0.446817 0.795711 1.401511 2.546218
2025-12-07 0.070781 0.129856 0.233712 0.430923 0.799969 1.468295 2.787429
2025-12-14 0.062127 0.118335 0.220945 0.423451 0.817833 1.561265 3.091034
2025-12-21 0.054752 0.108056 0.208900 0.415335 0.832898 1.650617 3.401338
2025-12-28 0.050641 0.103661 0.207725 0.428948 0.894292 1.842244 3.956961
2026-01-04 0.045501 0.096447 0.200015 0.428285 0.926812 1.981528 4.429254
2026-01-11 0.041514 0.091022 0.195153 0.432861 0.971281 2.153133 5.003635
2026-01-18 0.038582 0.087416 0.193583 0.444355 1.032911 2.372047 5.725761
2026-01-25 0.033991 0.079424 0.181314 0.429841 1.032974 2.452536 6.136287
2026-02-01 0.029521 0.071039 0.166953 0.408197 1.012714 2.482446 6.428712
2026-02-08 0.026477 0.065576 0.158567 0.399619 1.022962 2.587599 6.932222
2026-02-15 0.023716 0.060391 0.150099 0.389508 1.027720 2.679890 7.419345
2026-02-22 0.022302 0.058383 0.149138 0.398479 1.083667 2.913022 8.334560
2026-03-01 0.019882 0.053409 0.139973 0.384352 1.075287 2.974133 8.776470
2026-03-08 0.018084 0.049826 0.133909 0.377713 1.086584 3.091002 9.403496